Welcome to my research page. As you can see, my interests vary widely, but one common theme that runs through much of my research is the use of quantitative methodological tools to study U.S. politics in historical and comparative perspective.
The Unsolid South: Mass Politics and National Representation in a One-Party Enclave (forthcoming, Princeton University Press)
This book examines the causes and consequences of ideological diversity among Southern Democrats in Congess and of their rightward migration from New Dealers to pivotal centrists. I draw on evidence from a wide range of sources, including data on public opinion and Democratic primary elections as well as historical accounts and archival sources, and I apply Bayesian measurement models to construct new measures of the policy preferences of members of Congress and their constituents. I argue that, contrary to received wisdom, competition in congressional primaries compensated for the absence of partisan competition, inducing a qualified but real electoral connection between voters and candidates. As a consequence, Southern senators and representatives responded to the preferences of the eligible electorate, and for the white public, congressional representation operated about as effectively in the South as in the rest of the nation. By linking Southerners' behavior in Congress with the evolving preferences of their electorates, my findings offer an explanation for the South's pivotal position in mid-century national politics and for the unusually low levels of congressional polarization during this period. Further, by distinguishing the effects of disenfranchisement in the South from the effects of one-partyism, they also suggest an important amendment to the conventional wisdom that effective representation requires partisan competition.
- Devin Caughey, James Dunham, and Christopher Warshaw. 2018. “The Ideological Nationalization of Party Constituencies in the American States.” Public Choice. Forthcoming. Paper
- Allan Dafoe, Baobao Zhang, and Devin Caughey. 2017. “Information Equivalence in Survey Experiments.” Political Analysis. Forthcoming. Paper | Replication Files
- Devin Caughey and Christopher Warshaw. 2017. “Policy Preferences and Policy Change: Dynamic Responsiveness in the American States, 1936–2014.” American Political Science Review. Pre-Published. Paper | Replication Files | Policy and Opinion Estimates
- Devin Caughey, Chris Tausanovitch, and Christopher Warshaw. 2017. “Partisan Gerrymandering and the Political Process: Effects on Roll-Call Voting and State Policies.” Election Law Journal 16 (Symposium on Partisan Gerrymandering and the Efficiency Gap): 453–469. Paper
- Cited by the appellees’ brief in the U.S. Supreme Court case Whitford v. Gill (2017).
- Devin Caughey, Christopher Warshaw, and Yiqing Xu. 2017. “Incremental Democracy: The Policy Effects of the Partisan Composition of State Government.” Journal of Politics 79 (4). Paper | Replication Files
- Devin Caughey, Allan Dafoe, and Jason Seawright. 2017. “Nonparametric Combination (NPC): A Framework for Testing Elaborate Theories.” Journal of Politics 79 (2): 688–701. Paper | R Package "NPC"
- Devin Caughey and Christopher Warshaw. 2016. “The Dynamics of State Policy Liberalism, 1936–2014.” American Journal of Political Science 60 (4): 899–913. Paper | Replication Files
- Winner of the APSA State Politics Section Best Journal Article Award.
- Devin Caughey and Eric Schickler. 2016. “Substance and Change in Congressional Ideology: NOMINATE and Its Alternatives.” Studies in American Political Development 30 (October): 1–19. Paper
- Allan Dafoe and Devin Caughey. 2016. “Honor and War: Southern U.S. Presidents and the Effects of Concern for Reputation.” World Politics 68 (2): 341–381. Paper | Replication Files
- Caughey, Devin and Christopher Warshaw. 2015. “Dynamic Estimation of Latent Opinion Using a Hierarchical Group-Level IRT Model.” Political Analysis 23 (2): 197–211. Paper | Replication Files | R Package "dgo" | Example Vignettes
- Reprinted in Robert J. Frazese Jr., ed. 2017. Advances in Political Methodology. Elgar.
- Rosa Arboretti, Eleonora Carrozzo, and Devin Caughey. 2015. “A Rank-based Permutation Test for Equivalence and Non-inferiority.” Italian Journal of Applied Statistics 25 (1): 81–92. Paper
- Caughey, Devin, and Jasjeet S. Sekhon. 2011. “Elections and the Regression Discontinuity Design: Lessons from Close U.S. House Races, 1942–2008.” Political Analysis 19 (4): 385–408. Paper | Replication Files
- Winner of the Warren Miller Prize and the Political Analysis Editors' Choice Award.
- Reprinted in Robert J. Franzese, ed. 2015. Quantitative Research in Political Science. SAGE.
- Schickler, Eric, and Devin Caughey. 2011. “Public Opinion, Organized Labor, and the Limits of New Deal Liberalism, 1936–1945.” Studies in American Political Development 25 (2): 162–189. Paper
- “Representation without Parties: Reconsidering the One-Party South, 1930–62”
- "Policy Ideology in European Mass Publics, 1981–2014" (with Tom O'Grady and Christopher Warshaw)
- “The Policy Bases of the New Deal Realignment: Evidence from Public Opinion Polls, 1936–1952” (with Michael Dougal and Eric Schickler)
- “Beyond the Sharp Null: Permutation Tests, Heterogeneous Effects, and Bounded Null Hypotheses” (with Allan Dafoe and Luke Miratrix)
- "Population Estimation and Calibration Weighting for Nonresponse and Sampling Bias: An Application to Quota-Sampled Opinion Polls, 1936–53" (with Adam Berinsky, Sara Chatfield, Erin Hartman, Eric Schickler, and Jasjeet Sekhon)
- “Target Selection as Variable Selection: Using the Lasso to Select Auxiliary Vectors for the Construction of Survey Weights” (with Erin Hartman)
- “A Bayesian Dynamic Ecological Inference Model for Estimating Time-Varying Population Distributions from Sparse, Irregular, and Noisy Marginal Data” (with Mallory Wang)