Welcome to my research page. As you can see, my interests vary widely, but one common theme that runs through much of my research is the use of quantitative methodological tools to study U.S. politics in historical and comparative perspective. 



  1. Devin Caughey. 2018. The Unsolid South: Mass Politics and National Representation in a One-Party Enclave. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

In Progress

  • Devin Caughey and Christopher Warshaw. Dynamic Democracy: Citizens, Parties, and Policymaking in the American States. Under advance contract with University of Chicago Press.
  • Devin Caughey, Adam Berinsky, Sara Chatfield, Erin Hartman, Eric Schickler, and Jasjeet Sekhon. Target Estimation and Calibration Weighting for Unrepresentative Survey Samples. Solicited for publication in Cambridge Elements: Quantitative and Computational Methods for Social Science, Cambridge University Press. Draft



  1. Devin Caughey, Michael C. Dougal, and Eric Schickler. Forthcoming. “Policy and Performance in the New Deal Realignment: Evidence from Old Data and New Methods.” Journal of PoliticsUnpublished Version
  2. Devin Caughey, Tom O’Grady, and Christopher Warshaw. Forthcoming. “Policy Ideology in European Mass Publics, 1981–2016.” American Political Science Review. Pre-published. Published Version | Data | Replication Archive
  3. Devin Caughey and Mallory Wang. 2019. “Dynamic Ecological Inference for Time-Varying Population Distributions Based on Sparse, Irregular, and Noisy Marginal Data.” Political Analysis 27 (3): 388–396. Published Version
  4. Allan Dafoe, Baobao Zhang, and Devin Caughey. 2018. “Information Equivalence in Survey Experiments.” Political Analysis 26 (4): 399–416. Paper | Replication Archive
  5. Devin Caughey, James Dunham, and Christopher Warshaw. 2018. “The Ideological Nationalization of Partisan Subconstituencies in the American States.” Public Choice 176 (1–2): 133–151. Paper
  6. Devin Caughey and Christopher Warshaw. 2017. “Policy Preferences and Policy Change: Dynamic Responsiveness in the American States, 1936–2014.” American Political Science Review 112 (2): 249–266. Paper | Replication Files | Policy and Opinion Estimates
  7. Devin Caughey, Chris Tausanovitch, and Christopher Warshaw. 2017. “Partisan Gerrymandering and the Political Process: Effects on Roll-Call Voting and State Policies.” Election Law Journal 16 (Symposium on Partisan Gerrymandering and the Efficiency Gap): 453–469. Paper
    • ​Cited by the appellees’ brief in the U.S. Supreme Court case Whitford v. Gill (2017).
  8. Devin Caughey, Christopher Warshaw, and Yiqing Xu. 2017. “Incremental Democracy: The Policy Effects of the Partisan Composition of State Government.” Journal of Politics 79 (4). Paper | Replication Files
  9. Devin Caughey, Allan Dafoe, and Jason Seawright. 2017. “Nonparametric Combination (NPC): A Framework for Testing Elaborate Theories.” Journal of Politics 79 (2): 688–701. Paper | R Package "NPC"
  10. Devin Caughey and Christopher Warshaw. 2016. “The Dynamics of State Policy Liberalism, 1936–2014.” American Journal of Political Science 60 (4): 899–913. Paper | Replication Files
    • ​Winner of the APSA State Politics Section Best Journal Article Award.
  11. Devin Caughey and Eric Schickler. 2016. “Substance and Change in Congressional Ideology: NOMINATE and Its Alternatives.” Studies in American Political Development 30 (October): 1–19. Paper
  12. Allan Dafoe and Devin Caughey. 2016. “Honor and War: Southern U.S. Presidents and the Effects of Concern for Reputation.” World Politics 68 (2): 341–381. Paper | Replication Files
  13. Caughey, Devin and Christopher Warshaw. 2015. “Dynamic Estimation of Latent Opinion Using a Hierarchical Group-Level IRT Model.” Political Analysis 23 (2): 197–211. Paper | Replication Archive | R Package "dgo" | Example Vignettes
    • Reprinted in Robert J. Frazese Jr., ed. 2017. Advances in Political Methodology. Elgar.
  14. Rosa Arboretti, Eleonora Carrozzo, and Devin Caughey. 2015. “A Rank-based Permutation Test for Equivalence and Non-inferiority.” Italian Journal of Applied Statistics 25 (1): 81–92. Paper
  15. Caughey, Devin, and Jasjeet S. Sekhon. 2011. “Elections and the Regression Discontinuity Design: Lessons from Close U.S. House Races, 1942–2008.” Political Analysis 19 (4): 385–408. Paper | Replication Files
    • Winner of the Warren Miller Prize and the Political Analysis Editors' Choice Award.
    • Reprinted in Robert J. Franzese, ed. 2015. Quantitative Research in Political Science. SAGE.
  16. Schickler, Eric, and Devin Caughey. 2011. “Public Opinion, Organized Labor, and the Limits of New Deal Liberalism, 1936–1945.” Studies in American Political Development 25 (2): 162–189. Paper | Online Appendix


  1. Devin Caughey and Sara Chatfield. 2019. “Causal Inference and American Political Development: Contrasts and Complementarities.” Public Choice. Pre-published. Paper
  2. Devin Caughey and Christopher Warshaw. 2019. “Public Opinion in Subnational Politics.” Journal of Politics 81 (Symposium on Subnational Policymaking): 352–363. Paper
  3. Devin Caughey. 2018. Review of Unstable Majorities: Polarization, Party Sorting, and Political Stalemate, by Morris P. Fiorina. Perspectives on Politics 16 (4): 1178–1179. Paper
  4. Devin Caughey and Eric Schickler. 2017. “Keith Poole, Ideology Scores, and the Study of Congressional Development.” The Legislative Scholar: The Newsletter of the Legislative Studies Section of the American Political Science Association 2 (2): 37–42. Paper

In Progress